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Learn how to beat the
biggest poker rooms! |
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Psychological Concepts: Changing Pace
Note: This section is only intended for shorthanded games (six or
fewer people), and when you’re playing against other good players.
One thing that many people often do wrong in online poker is
something that doesn’t even sound like it’s wrong: they play
consistently. After all, isn’t consistency generally a positive word?
Well, not in this case. Let us explain.
Though you may play your A-Q differently pre-flop and when you hit an
ace or a queen, and though you may bet a different amount (in no-limit)
or choose to jam the pot at a different time (in limit), the actual
variation in your play is, well, a little bit predictable. Most decent
players will be able to identify you as a certain type of player:
tight-aggressive, very tight-aggressive, etc. These guys know how to
read you better than a lot of other players, so you’d better be ready
for it.
A good way to help your earnings is to simply switch up your play
sometimes. This way, when your opponents are expecting that you’re gonna
bluff, you should bluff rarely so they’ll call you more. Likewise, if
your bets are for value, you should start to bluff at the pot a lot.
People generally won’t catch on if you do this discreetly, and it can
add more mystery to your play.
This strategy is obviously more effective at no-limit because it’s
much easier to bluff in a no-limit game. Still, it can be used at limit
as well. Generally, the game must be five or fewer people and,
preferably, four people total. With stakes large enough, you can
effectively bluff at the flop or turn if you play it tight at first, and
you’ll receive more callers for big bets if you bluff earlier.
For those of you who are mathematically inclined, we’ll use some game
theory to back up our assertions. Suppose you’re playing a soccer match
and you have a penalty kick. You predict that if you kick left, which
you’re personally much better at, you’ll have an 80% chance of scoring
(if the goalie isn’t expecting left). You also predict that if you kick
right, you’ll have a 60% of scoring (if the goalie isn’t expecting
right). However, if the goalie dives left and you kick left, you only
have a 45% chance of scoring, and if the goalie dives right and you kick
right, you only have a 35% chance of scoring. While all of this might
seem like nonsense at first, notice that your chances of scoring
decrease more if you always shoot to your favored left side. Your
chances of scoring decrease LESS, however, if you shoot to your
unfavored right side. In other words, it’s in your interest to shoot
right from time to time. Being unpredictable will increase your odds of
putting the ball in the back of the net.
In expert-level poker, it generally works the same way. Instead of
your percentage chance of scoring a goal, think of the numbers as an
hourly profit. “Shooting to the left” means playing your standard
tight-aggressive game and “shooting to the right” means playing a looser
game. Bad players may not “dive” at all or will always dive the wrong
way, so you can keep on playing your standard tight-aggressive game and
earn $80 an hour. However, against good
players, they’ll quickly realize what you’re doing and defend against
it. Your profit will drop down to $45 an hour.
So suppose you play tight-aggressive (left) 70% of the time and
looser (right) 30% of the time. If your opponents continue to play
against you as if you were tight-aggressive all the time, you’ll now
earn $49.50 an hour [(70% x 45) + (30% x 60)].
Now, if your opponents catch on to what you’re doing and play you as
a tight-aggressive 80% of the time and a looser player 20% of the time,
your profit will actually increase, as long as they don’t know exactly
when you’re playing which way. Your profit would be [(70%)(30%) x 45] +
[(30%)(70%) x 80] + [(80%)(30%) x 60] + [(20%)(30%) x 35], which equals
$52.90 an hour—much better than before.
Let’s think of things from a reverse perspective for a moment. In
order to defend against players who change pace, you need to know WHEN
they are changing pace. This should help you when you think of it from
an offensive perspective as well. Obviously, if your opponents treat you
as a tight-aggressive player 70% of the time and you actually ARE a
tight-aggressive player during that time, your profit will drop. As
shown before, however, predicting a change of pace when there isn’t one
will greatly help you out, since people will generally treat you the
same even if you switch your style. Take advantage, ladies and
gentlemen!
On the whole, we recommend you change your pace a little bit, but be
sure to randomize it so your opponents don’t catch on.
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